Friday, September 14, 2007

Michigan Preview: The Battle to Avoid Disaster

Notre Dame has not started a season 0-3 since the days of Bob Davie back in 2001, and tomorrow, the Fighting Irish will try to avoid falling into that category this year. Tomorrow's game can be pitched as "Two storied programs fight for the title of: College Football's most winningest team" or "Two struggling coaches will try to prove themselves" or even "two promising young quarterbacks will compete to lead their team to victory."

You can say what you want about the lines that ESPN and the other networks will pitch, but the bottom line is that the winner of this game will be the team that wins time of possession and avoids turnovers. Ineptitude in the Michigan defense led to big plays for Appalachian State and Oregon while a poor offense put the Irish defense in position to be slowly grinded into submission against Georgia Tech and Penn State.

Keys to beating Michigan's offense: Notre Dame must stop Mike Hart. Period. An already stagnant offense has been quelled even more with the loss of Chad Henne. Look for Michigan to run hand off after hand off in order to milk the time of possession and avoid turnovers by putting the ball in the hands of their senior work horse running back. Mallet's 35% completion percentage for 49 yards and one interception do not provide much boost to the passing game, so Notre Dame should be able to play a lot of man coverage and throw an extra man (I'll bet money it's Zibby) in the box for run support. If Corwin's team can continue to prevent big plays, holding the Michigan offense to under 20 points seems not only possible, but probable.


Keys to beating Michigan's defense: Charlie must test the Michigan defense in order to succeed in tomorrow's game. Michigan has a front seven more than capable of causing havoc for ND's struggling offensive line. Look for Clausen to (hopefully) use John Carlson, David Grimes, Robby Parris, and Armando Allen (even if it is all on RB flare patterns) to stretch out the defense and prevent the linebackers from blitzing every play.

It's tough to say, but this analysis gives a pretty large edge to Michigan. Clausen is much more likely to cause turnovers trying to establish and unproven passing game than Hart is likely to fumble in his thirty carries. Notre Dame also hasn't shown the capability of producing the big plays that hurt Michigan in its last two games, and Michigan's running game could potentially tire out our defense and lead to a pour second half just like in the last two weeks.


Bottom line, Go Irish! Beat Wolverines! As you can see, I'll be bringing tissues for the constant nosebleed I'll be experiencing in row 93.

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