Wednesday, February 20, 2008

A Tale of Two Freshmen Part 1

I understand that Charlie's Nasties hasn't been supplying its usual dose of Notre Dame football coverage lately, so I thought that I'd try to make up for it by throwing up a long (and hopefully decent) post. Some physicians have suggested that blog readers should not take all of this information in one sitting, so try to squeeze a coffee break in around game 5.

Earlier in the year, I took a look at the numbers from Brady Quinn's freshman year and set them against Clausen's numbers from the 2007 season. I have to admit that I got the idea to do this after one of my readers complained that I was being too harsh on Clausen and after I had read an article on UHND.com comparing the two.
The Excel chart breaks down a few key QB stats for each player. The opponent and whether ND won or lost the game is listed beneath each column. Cold hard numbers can be helpful in analyzing a situation, but they don't tell the whole story. With that in mind, lets weigh Clausen against Quinn game by game.

Game 1: JC saw minimal playing time in a loss against a GT team that suffocated ND with its speedy front 7 (I can't wait to have Tenuta with us next season). Quinn's team didn't look much better, getting embarrassed by No. 4 ranked Michigan. 2007's negative 8 rushing yards against Tech made the 2003's squad's performance of +49 look like a clinic. However, Brady, with a lower completion percentage and an interception, played more sloppy in mop up time, so this win goes to Clausen.

Game 2: Brady took over for a struggling Carlyle Holiday midway through the second quarter and kept the Irish in the game against MSU, drawing the score to within 6 in the final 3 minutes. Clausen attempted a rather high 32 passes as 2007's anemic offense failed for the second game to get positive rushing yards, converting only 2-16 on 3rd down. As will be the trend for the next several games, Jimmy completes a higher percentage of his shorter passes, but in this particular game, Brady's one TD is better than Clausen's pick. Edge: Quinn.

Game 3: Facing off against 13th ranked Purdue, Quinn threw for a monster 297 yards and a touchdown. However, his erratic passing led to 4 interceptions, and his touchdown was an 85 yard bomb to Stovall. Clausen's team once again netted negative rushing yards, most of them coming from the plethora of sacks the Wolverines dished out on the young QB.
After watching that video, it might seem crazy, but I'm gonna give the edge to Clausen here. Despite being ridiculously pressured the entire game, he only turned the ball over once (discouting some snap-caused fumbles). The only reason the 2003 game appeared close was that Quinn was able to rely on the shoulders of an experienced defense that was able to hold Purdue to 223 total yards.

Game 4: Against Pittsburgh in 2003, Willingham decided to take some pressure off of his young QB by relying more on the running game. The result was 262 yards on 24 carries by Julius Jones, supplemented by an 84 yard performance by Ryan Grant. Quinn only completed 29% of his 17 attempted passes, and one of them was intercepted. The Irish escaped with a 20-14 win; once again the defense played a big part in the win, holding Pitt to 175 total yards. Weis tried a similar tactic against MSU, handing the ball to Aldridge 18 times, which resulted in a 100+ yard game for him and Notre Dame's first game with positive rushing of the year. Only down 3 at halftime, 2007's inability to convert on 3rd down (4-15) kept them from staying in the game down the stretch. Still, Jimmy was able to avoid turning the ball over, and his passes were much more efficient (higher completion percentage and more YPA), so I have to go with Clausen.
Jones rushed for an ND record 262 yards against PittGame 5: For only the second time in his first 10 games, Quinn finished the game without being intercepted, and he did it against #1 ranked USC. Clausen faced a much thinner Purdue defensive secondary, and picked it apart for 169 yards and a touchdown before having to leave at the end of the first half. This one's a toss up firstly because Quinn was facing the top ranked team in the country while JC faced a much less formidable opponent and secondly because he only played one half. That makes this one Not Applicable.

Game
6: In his best game of the season, Quinn threw for 350 yards (9 YPA) in a losing effort against Boston College. Even though Clausen won the game against UCLA and accomplished his task of not turning the ball over, Quinn's complete domination on the stat sheet definitely give this game to him.

Game 7: The 2003 Irish suffered a walloping by 8th ranked FSU in week 8; Brady completed under 40% of his passes for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns in the loss. Clausen didn't fair much better against 4th ranked Boston College, completing 7 passes for (yawn) 60 yards and throwing two picks before he was replaced by Evan Sharpley shortly after the start of the 3rd quarter, and if it weren't for a suspect holding call later in the game, Sharpley might even have been able to beat Matt Ryan and his motley crew. Here I'll take Quinn's performance because (while it was also definitely subpar) he at least managed to finish the game.
Game 8: For some reason, ESPN didn't have data for Quinn's true 8th game, which was a 27-24 win over Navy, so we'll skip to his next game, a 33-14 win against Brigham Young. Another 100+ yard day for Jones meant that #10's 156 yards and 1 interception were enough to get the 2003 squad a win, but it wasn't enough to beat out Clausen. In ND's 10th game last season, after sitting out against USC and Navy, JC came back to throw a season high 246 yards and 3 touchdowns against Air Force. While 2007's defense couldn't find a way to stop the Falcon offense, the 24 points scored by the Irish that week were the most scored in a game that Clausen started, suggesting that Chuck made the right move by giving him two weeks to rest.

Game 9: Quinn only played for 3 quarters against Stanford in his 10th game; the Irish scored an absurd 57 points in the first three quarters (mostly on their running game and defense), but Quinn still contributed 179 yards (on 62% passing) for 2 touchdowns and a pick. This one could go either way as Clausen tossed 3 touchdowns against a comparable Duke team, but I'm going to pick Brady here because his 179 yards came on only 13 attempts (while it took JC over twice that many to net 194). Also, Quinn's team was able to capitalize early against a weak Stanford team, and as a student that was in the stadium last year, I can tell you that our 28-7 win over Duke was not as smooth as the score suggests.

Game 10: ND ended the 2003 campaign on a sour note, dropping the last game to a 6-6 Syracuse team by a margin of 38-12. The key in this game was the rushing; the Orangemen torched us for 250 yards and 5 touchdowns while the team of Jones and Grant only managed 86 yards combined. The point here is that when Quinn wasn't supported by a strong ground attack, it made it more difficult for him to air it out, and he was only able to throw 1 touchdown against 2 picks. Clausen completed his third straight game with a QB rating over 100 to top a less formidable Stanford team. He did throw his first interception in 3 games, but did manage almost 200 yards on 60% of his attempts (and he had one touchdown robbed from him by the officials). In a game where Clausen could watch his running back rip off 136 yards on the ground, he arguably put together a much better passing game than Quinn did with a similar ground game.

Final Score: Quinn 5, Clausen 4. That's it for today; I'll try to weigh in on this information sometime in the next few days. Feel free to leave any of your opinions in the comments. Until then, Go Irish!

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Pops, keep in mind that Quinn was hardly as touted a recruit as clausen was, and while it is unreasonable to expect a freshman to make an immediate impact, even a player as hearalded as Clausen, it is understandable why irish fans have been frustrated with Jimmy's play this past fall..

Pops said...

But keep in mind (and this will be discussed in Part 2 article) that Clausen also had to run one of the most inexperienced offenses in ND history and also didn't benefit from the strong defense Quinn enjoyed. I was definitely disappointed with the football team's performance this season, but the purpose of this analysis is to try to compare each QB on an even level.

Domer OC said...

Hey Pops,
This is the user you referred to early in the post...still reading the Nasties!

I thought this was a fair and impartial look at the two. The only additional factor I would include is the protection. You mention each O line's ability to open up the run and thus take some pressure off the QB, but the 2007 O line pass protection was drastically worse than what Quinn had early on. It may very well have been one of the worst pass-blocking O lines ND has ever fielded.

Still though, a great comparison and fair analysis.

Hopefully our O line will give JC some better protection this year. If that happens, I think JC will surprise many with his accuracy and arm strength (with a healthy elbow, knock on wood).

Keep up the good work!