Purdue Duds and Studs

The economy may be tanking right now, but stock in the Notre Dame football team looks like its on the rise.

Duds

Pass Rush: As long as I've been writing the Duds and Studs article, I've never found it too hard to identify at least a few negatives out of a win, but this week showed a team that played just about as cohesively and efficiently as you can hope for coming off of the sloppy game against Michigan State. Sure Duval had another drop and Walker missed another field goal, but Kamara nearly hauled in a great TD catch (which I'm told was about as close to being an actual touchdown as Grimes' catch against Stanford last year), and Walker was 5/5 on PATs and knocked in his first field goal of the year (41 yards), so even those players showed improvement. Thus, I'm forced to focus only on one 'Dud' this week, which is our pass rush. Against a team like Purdue that is going to throw the ball as much as possible (55 attempts by Painter), Brown, Tentuta, and Co. should have had a grand time teeing off at the snap of the ball, but the Irish were still void of a sack. Hopefully this unit can also improve heading into next week against a Stanford team with a below average offensive line (...but a better conference record than USC).

Studs

Class of 2011 Early Admits: Jimmy Clausen put together his best game of the year, throwing for 275 yards and 3 TDs, but more importantly, JC was able to avoid turning the ball over. The Irish's ability to hold onto the ball all game was a big reason that we won. Armando Allen did his best to prove me and everyone else wrong by running all over the Boilermakers on Saturday; the 7.9 yards per carry and long run of 21 yards finally gave fans hope that Allen may finally be reaching the game speed that has been absent since his junior year in high school. Lastly, the third and last early enrollee of their class, Gary Gray, played a solid game in the secondary. Especially with Walls missing this year, Gray stepping up has helped the Irish more than he has been given credit for.

Other Young DBs: Another member of the sophomore class, Harrison Smith, also had a great day in the defensive secondary. With his speed an athleticism at the linebacker position, Smith gives Brown an nice Ace in the Hole to bring in against pass happy teams like Purdue and it was refreshing to see him take advantage of the opportunity. Freshman R.J. Blanton also provided the play of the game, housing a Curtis Painter INT for 47 yards to put the Irish on the board.

O-Line: After a slight hiccup last week, the much improved offensive line is back on the good side. The 5.0 yards per carry and 1 sack are pretty good numbers, but what I liked best was the 3/4 on fourth down conversions, two of which came on short yardage smash mouth runs.
WRs: Weis said after the MSU game that holding Grimes out would pay visible dividends against Purdue, and it looks like Charlie was right. Grimes looked good out of the slot, especially on his 31 yard 4th down TD reception. Floyd has been so impressive lately that Rakes has called an emergency meeting to find him a good nickname, and Tate continues to show diversity and consistency with his routes, hauling in his 3rd TD of the year on top of a 5 reception performance. Wack stat courtesy of the Observer: Golden's 367 receiving yards are the most through 4 games since Tom Gatewood in 1970. Freshman Kyle "call me Dallas" Rudolph also got into the mix on an excellent play action TD catch.

Other thoughts: Some people have knocked ND's recent recruiting success with complaints that the young talent hasn't transferred to the field. Looking at the plethora of young studs, hopefully this argument can be proven false in the next few games. After such a strong win against Purdue, I really hope the Irish don't suffer a letdown against Stanford this weekend. Toby Gerhart is a poor man's Jevon Ringer, and if ND isn't careful, he could have a Ringer-like day.

Until then, Go Irish!

The Way Too Early UNC Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 4-8

2007 conference record: 3-5

Returning starters: 10 on offense – 8 on defense

In 2007, there was a team that won an embarrassing 3 games against division 1 opponents.

Their running game didn’t help the cause; three running backs split carries all season to lead this team to a bottom 20 rushing attack. Not one of these three has really distanced themselves from the rest, although a rising sophomore did finish strong with over 200 yards in the final two games, albeit it wasn’t against top competition (see Duke).

A freshman started the majority of the year at quarterback, and performed pretty well for a freshman, especially considering he was not 100% healthy.

The defense was decent, but not good enough to make up for the offense’s lack of production.

But for some reason this coach isn’t on the hot seat. Perhaps it is because the school has faith in his NFL background. Perhaps it is because they have too much money invested in him to cut him loose. Or perhaps it is because this team appears ready to make a big jump from 2007 to 2008.

The quarterback appears to be healthy, and is poised to widen the gap between his touchdown / interception ratio with a year of experience under his belt.

A plethora of experience returns at receiver, with nearly 100% of the team’s receptions returning, and an offensive line with a lot of experience is ready to gel and give the QB time to throw.

The defense will mourn the loss of it’s two best players (including a very talented DT taken during the first day of the draft), but enough talent returns that most fans do not view the unit as a concern heading into the fall.

What’s more, this year’s schedule is notably easier than last year’s. Rutger’s, Virginia Tech, and Rutgers (all currently unranked) replace No.23 USF, No. 17 Va Tech, and No. 7 South Carolina as the toughest games on the schedule.

Wait a second… Notre Dame doesn’t play any of those teams....

That’s right. The University of North Carolina Tar Heels enter the 2008 season in a way so similar to Notre Dame that it is almost eerie. What’s more scary is the fact that in the early Vegas lines, Notre Dame is actually an underdog against the Tarheels this year, and this is probably due to a few reasons:

While both teams return sophomore quarterbacks, UNC’s T.J. Yates had the benefit of not getting knocked on his ass every play. The freshman threw for 2,655 yards on 218 of 365 attempts (good for the single season UNC passing record) on a nagging elbow injury. While off season surgery could affect his performance, Yates should be able to repeat his passing numbers while improving on his 14:18 TD/Int ratio.

Both quarterbacks will benefit from a large quantity of returning talent along the offensive line, but the Tar Heel’s hog mollies performed considerably better than ND’s squad last year. In addition to not allowing 58 sacks last season, this line actually returns more age and experience than ours. Kyle Jolly, Aaron Stahl, Calvin Darity, Garrett Reynolds, and Lowell Dyer all return with starting experience, and measuring in at 6'4.5", 302 lbs. on average, this unit that was a weakness last season may end up being a strength in 2008.

The offensive line play is one of the reasons that Notre Dame’s receivers were not as productive as North Carolina’s, but UNC still returns 218 of 220 receptions while ND’s graduation of John Carlson is a big loss. Junior Hakeem Nicks will look to build off of his 900+ yard, 5 TD season from a year ago.

Former WR Greg Little switched running back for the last two games, (where he rushed for 89 yards against Georgia Teach and 150 yards against Duke) and looks to be the frontrunner to start in the backfield this year.

UNC’s defense took some big hits at the end of last year, losing DT Kentwan Balmer to the NFL draft (1st round to the 49ers) and Durell Mapp (leading tackler in 2007) to graduation, but the Tarheels should have enough talent returning to be competitive (if not the best in the ACC Coastal). E.J Wilson will look to step up in Balmer’s absence (he was second on the team with 5 sacks last year), and Marvin Austin (former 5 star recruit) looks to build off of an impressive first year at DT, registering 4 sacks.

Aleric Mullins is the favorite to win the other DT starting job, and he also appears to be ready for a good 2008:

“Mullins is capable of getting to the quarterback, closing running lanes, and wreaking havoc on opposing offenses”

And that isn’t just a section football reference.

In the secondary, return 4 starters, including ACC defensive rookie of the year FS Deunta Williams. Pressure from the Tarheel’s front seven will allow these playmakers in the secondary more opportunities to make plays; the group of four finished with 6 interceptions last year.

In conclusion, UNC looks to actually be in a better situation heading into 2008. Notre Dame may have an advantage at running back and linebacker (hopefully quarterback, too), but the Tarheels appear to be as good or better at every other position. Because the 2008 final records for both of these teams depends so much on to what extent they fulfill their potential, this game is somewhat difficult to predict this early in the season. I would like to think that Kerry Neal and Brian Smith will be able to cause some carnage in the backfield and Notre Dame will ride it’s strong secondary to a win, but if UNC starts the season off strong and wins some tough games (@ Rutgers, home against VaTech) before this matchup, the Irish could be in for a struggle in Chapel Hill. For now, I’ll take the optimist route and give Notre Dame a 21-14 victory.

The Way Too Early Stanford Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 4-8

2007 conference record: 3-6

Returning starters: 9 on offense – 11 on defense

Despite downing the Trojans in a massive upset last year, Stanford only finished ahead of the 4-9 Washington Huskies in the PAC-10. Jim Harbaugh, despite scaring every potential recruit’s mother by playing two injured quarterbacks against the Irish last season, is taking the necessary steps to begin moving this team in the right direction.
"Of our accomplishments in 2007, first and foremost is that we have begun to change the football culture to one that appreciates competitive, winning football," Harbaugh said, adding that the team’s one goal for this season is to bring a physical presence, especially along the offensive and defensive lines.

The defense returns 12 players that have at least 4 starts, the offense returns plenty of experience at nearly every position besides receiver, and if these developing players can buy into their coach’s winning mindset, better days could be ahead for the Cardinal.

However, if Stanford wants to be competitive this year, they need to settle on their starting quarterback. The capable (1,100 yards and 5 tds in 6 starts) but inconsistent (9 ints) Travita Pritchard looks like the frontrunner to start in the opener against Oregon State, but transfer Jason Forcier and Alex Loukas will look to keep the quarterback carousel moving if Pritchard falters early on.

The reason that Stanford must settle on a quarterback early to be successful is that the team does have some tools that can be used to win this season. Center Alex Fletcher is on the Outland Trophy watch list, and the quarterback will likely have two solid receiving options in TE Anthony Kimble and WR Richard Sherman. Fletcher will also be joined with three returning starters along the O-line, so the signal caller should have time to throw.

Senior Anthony Kimble will get the first chance at running back, but if injuries continue to plague him, Stanford has other backs with 105, 64, 12 career carries to rely on. While Stanford isn’t lacking experience at this position, they are still lacking something; Irish Eyes lists the Cardinal rushing attack as the 9th strongest on ND’s schedule. Not exactly the type of stuff that keeps a defense up at night.
A legitimate darkhorse All-American candidate (hey – just cause it’s from a Stanford message board doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen…) returns at the defensive end position in senior Pannel Egboh, who racked up 13.5 tackles for loss last season. Egboh will be joined by junior Erik Lorig in what seems to be a good combo at defensive end. However, even our enthusiastic Stanford fan admits that the position is fairly weak behind them, so if Notre Dame can get the ground game going early, we should be able to wear down the defense as the game goes on.

It would be nice if the Irish line can handle the defensive line, because according to the same message board poster, they should have their hands full with the linebackers:

“In all, I actually think it ranks with USC and Cal as one of the better linebacker groups in the country. If you had me rate Stanford's position groups, I'd put most in the bottom couple of the conference with OL, RB, and DE better than that and maybe closer to middle of the pack. But linebacker I don't think the question is whether it's top half of the conference, it's whether it's top 20 or 25 in the nation.”

Stanford returns experience at every position on defense in 2008, but the unit ranked 98th in the country in total yards allowed (435.5), so they have a lot of room to improve. Harbaugh lured experienced defensive coordinator Ron Lynn out of retirement to shore up a unit that was capable of confusing the likes of Cal and USC last season under Scott Shafer. When a team returns a lot of talent at any position, there is an opportunity for a big jump in production, but Stanford has a considerable ways to improve on this side of the ball, and Cardinal faithful shouldn’t expect much more than a top 50 defense next year.
The bottom line is that a Notre Dame team that struggled mightily throughout a disastrous 2007 campaign was able to beat the Cardinal in Palo Alto by a deceivingly decisive margin of 21-14, and both teams are essentially returning most of the same young players that played each other last year. While Notre Dame had the more severe losses of Carlson, Laws, and Zibby, there isn’t any reason to believe that the Irish won’t win again this season in South Bend. Notre Dame takes this one 24-13.

The Way Too Early Purdue Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 8-5

2007 conference record: 3-5

Returning starters: 7 on offense - 5 on defense

After an excellent trip (ignoring the loss) to West Lafayette last season, I’m looking forward to hosting the Boilermakers in South Bend this year; Purdue’s offense and lack of defense should make for a fun and exciting thriller on September 27th.

Longshot Heisman candidate Curtis Painter will return under center, looking to build off of a season where he threw for 3,800 yards and 29 touchdowns. Fortunately for the Irish, top receiver Dorien Bryant and well utilized tight end Dustin Keller will both be in the NFL next season, leaving Greg Orton to step up as Painter’s main target. The Boilermaker’s may have graduated a lot of talent at the position last year (they also lost WR Selwyn Lymon), but Orton hauled in over 60 receptions (3 TDs), and seniors Joe Whitest, Desmond Tardy, and JUCO Aaron Valentin should be able to bring a decent deal of experience to fill the void. None of the new receiving corp may impress on paper, but then again, Matt Ryan didn’t need a lot to work with in order to win with BC last season.

A week after facing Javon Ringer, the Notre Dame front seven will be challenged again to stop the run as talented senior Kory Sheets will return for another year. Sheets ran for nearly 900 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and with capable backups filling out this position, Painter should be able to hand off when he needs to pick up yards on the ground.

That is, however, if Purdue can field an offensive line this year. Three starters return along the front five, but all three players are recovering from offseason surgery. Seniors Zach Jones (OT) and Zach Redman (OG) both had work done on their shoulders in the offseason, and season left tackle Sean Sester, arguably the best pro prospect on the team, is coming off of back surgery. It can be tough for any player to fully recover from surgery, and extensive injuries like these can be especially nagging on linemen over the course of a season. The lack of depth at the position could aid to this problem as the three starters will likely be banged up for the game against Notre Dame, facing Oregon and Central Michigan before traveling to South Bend.
An offense that could put points on the board last season (423 yards/game, 32.9 points/game) looks like it might have the capability of having another good offensive year, but a defense that gave up 385 yards/game and nearly 25 ppg has some room for improvement heading into 2008. Four members of the 2007 secondary (2 CBs, 1 SS, 1 LB) tried to make it to the NFL through free agency and tryouts this spring, but the loss of OLBs Cliff Avril and Stanford Keglar through the draft probably hurt this team the most. Anthony Heygood is a legitimate all-Big-Ten player at the Mike position, registering 80 tackles in his first season with playing time. The question is whether or not some talented young players can join Heygood and aid an above average defensive line in applying pressure up front.

By this point in the season, our offensive line should be able to win the battle against Purdue's front seven, allowing the Irish to open up a decent running game and give Jimmy enough time rack up some passing stats. While students should be able to count on doing some push ups in the stands, whether or not our defense can stop the Boilermaker offense is a bigger question mark. If Purdue's offensive line is healthy, Sheets could have a big day on the ground, and Painter will have time to set his feet and pick apart our secondary. What's most scary about facing a good quarterback like Painter is that if TAN-NOOH-TAH's blitz packages don't land, he has the ability to make the defense pay.

Fortunately, I think that after two tough ground games against Michigan and MSU, our defense will be up to the task of winning the battle at the defensive line of scrimmage, forcing a turnover or two, and giving fans something to cheer about with a 35-24 win, and thankfully the Irish will be able to witness victory without 10,000 megawatt advertisements blaring in their ears.

Go Irish!

The Way Too Early MSU Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 7-6
2007 conference record: 3-5
Returning starters: 9 on offense - 5 on defense

Based on last year's record, MSU looks like a team that could turn the corner in 2008. They fought the number 9 ranked badgers to a 3 point loss in Madison, they took the top ranked Buckeyes down to the wire in Columbus, and dropped their bowl game to a skilled Boston College team by only 3 points. Mark Dantonio’s team may have lost 6 times in 2007, but none of these losses were by more than seven points.

Tailback Javon Ringer rushed for nearly 1,500 yards last season while splitting time with Jehuu Cualcrick, who as we all know, was a BOWLING BALL against the Irish in 2006, but was kept out of the game in the final minutes as part of John L. Smith's genius self destruct plan. Cualcrick was used as the goal line back last season, tallying a school record 21 rushing touchdowns; look for Ringer to challenge that record if he can stay healthy.

Senior quarterback Brian Hoyer is coming off of an impressive campaign, throwing for 2,725 yards with a 131 quarterback rating. He will be without his two favorite targets, Devin Thomas and tight end Kellen Davis (both in NFL), but Hoyer should have enough talent to work with as the team returns two contributors at WR (Mark Dell and Deon Curry), and Ringer is also a capable receiving back. If for nothing else, an offensive line that returns 3 starters from last season should be able to give Hoyer time to throw, especially against a thin Irish front 7.

When breaking down teams, analysts and bloggers can come up with some pretty decent opinions, but the people who really know what they're doing are the bookies. Here's what BetFirms.com thinks about the Spartan defense:

"With only 5 returning starters there is talk that this same defense that created 20 turnovers and had a combined 40 sacks can improve on those numbers this season. The team is very high at the end spots with senior Brandon Long and transfer Trevor Anderson. Even though the only returning starter on the d-line is tackle Justin Kershaw, but sophomores Oren Wilson and Trevor Anderson have shown a lot of promise so far. The best player on this side of the ball is sophomore MLB Greg Jones, as he makes the switch to the middle from outside. Jones is only going to get better, as he led the team in tackles as a true freshman. Look for fellow sophomore Eric Gordon to be a solid campaign at linebacker. The secondary has 4 guys that have seen action at the corner spot, but look for junior Ashton Henderson and senior Kendell Davis-Clark to hold down the spots to start the season. Otis Wiley will return as the starting strong safety and it looks like junior Roderick Jenrette will be the guy roaming at free safety."

So on paper, the 2008 Spartans look like a pretty scary matchup, right? So why does BetFirms have MSU finishing 5th in the Big Ten? Why does foxsports.com say that MSU fans are only "cautiously optimistic" at this point in the season. Oh yeah, because they are Michigan State.

It seems like MSU is on the verge of greatness nearly every season, but they can never turn the corner. Whether they start out hot and suffer a cataclysmic loss that dooms the rest of their season, or consistently drop close games throughout the season, Spartan fans usually use this time of the year to think back on what could have been.

Notre Dame has won 15 of the last 17 games at Michigan State, but unfortunately, ND will be facing off against a capable offense and aggressive defense too early in the season for Michigan State to have completely collapsed. Look for Ringer to have a 150 yard game while an experienced Hoyer takes control of the ball enough to hold onto a 21-17 win. Notre Dame starts off the 2008 season 1-2.

Not to end on a bad note, here's one of the best highlight videos ever made:

The Way Too Early Michigan Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 9-4
2007 conference record: 6-2
Returning starters: 3 on offense – 5 on defense

Carlos Brown will battle Brandon Minor for the starting roll. Both backs posted similar numbers last season, each netting around 380 rushing yards on around 80 attempts. Look to see some of incoming freshman Sam McGuffie if either of those two struggle; the speedster from Texas comes to Ann Arbor with an impressive highlight reel and possesses the big play potential that could be helpful for a young offense. I know that my dorm-mates back at school all fear and respect the McGuffie virus.

After losing Adrian Arrington and Mario Manningham to the green movement, errr… NFL, Greg Matthews and Junior Hemmingway will likely be the primary targets at receiver this fall. The pair only contributed to 15% of the passing offense last season and will have to make a big jump if they want to scare any team’s secondary. Look for Threet to use returning TEs Carson Butler and Mike Massey if Rodriguez doesn’t eliminate their positions so the Wolverines can run a spread…

Redshirt SO David Molk, redshirt SE Mark Ortmann, redshirt SE David Moosman, redshirt SE Cory Zirbel, and redshirt junior Steve Schilling are the favorites to start in the offensive trenches, and while a first glance at the line should make a UM fan feel pretty confident, a solid and mature offensive line last year prevented most of these guys from getting playing time; Schilling is the only returning starter. There was a reason most of these guys weren’t starting last year, but four years to develop strength and technique leads me to believe that while the group may lack experience, their age should make them pretty solid. Notre Dame is fortunate to play Mich early in the season, but could still have major troubles matching up against this group.

It gets worse in the defensive line. The same four hog-mollys that gave Clausen an unforgettable (for all the wrong reasons) welcome to college football is back; a fine tuned group of seniors and fifth years that sacked Clausen eight times last year will give the Notre Dame line a much tougher test than the Aztecs.

A lot of experience returns at cornerback as the Wolverines will have two seniors back from last year as well as a talented Donovan Warren, who saw a lot of PT last year as a freshman, but the two projected starters at the safety positions are both rising juniors with little experience. Notre Dame’s best bet will be to stretch the field and keep the UM linebackers and safeties guessing with lots of playaction and screens.

Unfortunately for the Irish, the ability to keep a defense off balance relies heavily on establishing a consistent running game; even if only 3 yards is consistently gained. Clausen must also be able to set his feet on his deep drops in order to deliver catchable deep balls, and while the showing by the offensive line will be better than last year’s debacle (how could it be worse?), I think that Michigan’s talent and experience up front will prevent ND from moving the ball with much success.

The Bleacher Report and I both agree that this game will be interesting from the standpoint that it will tell us much about the future of each team, this one probably won't be a shootout in South Bend:

"With Michigan still working out kinks of its own at this point of the season, and a highly inexperienced offensive unit entering a hostile environment for the first time, I foresee a low-scoring affair and a game determined by the play of both defenses."

Notre Dame’s best chance for success in this is game is to be the aggressor on defense, bringing heat up the middle and off the edge, forcing a green offense to make the plays. If the Irish are successful in this one, it will be due to ND’s defense drumming up come circa 2002 turnovers, and Michigan's defense surrendering one or two big plays on offense and special teams. It is fortunate that Notre Dame has week one to work out a few kinks against San Diego State, but this game will likely be a grueling defensive struggle. Unless the team made some giant strides in the offseason, however, the Irish offense will struggle against a good UM defense, and Notre Dame will drop their second game of the season 17 – 10.