Wednesday, August 13, 2008

The Way Too Early UNC Preview

Over the next several weeks, Charlie's Nasties will be giving readers previews of the 2008 Irish opponents.

2007 record: 4-8

2007 conference record: 3-5

Returning starters: 10 on offense – 8 on defense

In 2007, there was a team that won an embarrassing 3 games against division 1 opponents.

Their running game didn’t help the cause; three running backs split carries all season to lead this team to a bottom 20 rushing attack. Not one of these three has really distanced themselves from the rest, although a rising sophomore did finish strong with over 200 yards in the final two games, albeit it wasn’t against top competition (see Duke).

A freshman started the majority of the year at quarterback, and performed pretty well for a freshman, especially considering he was not 100% healthy.

The defense was decent, but not good enough to make up for the offense’s lack of production.

But for some reason this coach isn’t on the hot seat. Perhaps it is because the school has faith in his NFL background. Perhaps it is because they have too much money invested in him to cut him loose. Or perhaps it is because this team appears ready to make a big jump from 2007 to 2008.

The quarterback appears to be healthy, and is poised to widen the gap between his touchdown / interception ratio with a year of experience under his belt.

A plethora of experience returns at receiver, with nearly 100% of the team’s receptions returning, and an offensive line with a lot of experience is ready to gel and give the QB time to throw.

The defense will mourn the loss of it’s two best players (including a very talented DT taken during the first day of the draft), but enough talent returns that most fans do not view the unit as a concern heading into the fall.

What’s more, this year’s schedule is notably easier than last year’s. Rutger’s, Virginia Tech, and Rutgers (all currently unranked) replace No.23 USF, No. 17 Va Tech, and No. 7 South Carolina as the toughest games on the schedule.

Wait a second… Notre Dame doesn’t play any of those teams....

That’s right. The University of North Carolina Tar Heels enter the 2008 season in a way so similar to Notre Dame that it is almost eerie. What’s more scary is the fact that in the early Vegas lines, Notre Dame is actually an underdog against the Tarheels this year, and this is probably due to a few reasons:

While both teams return sophomore quarterbacks, UNC’s T.J. Yates had the benefit of not getting knocked on his ass every play. The freshman threw for 2,655 yards on 218 of 365 attempts (good for the single season UNC passing record) on a nagging elbow injury. While off season surgery could affect his performance, Yates should be able to repeat his passing numbers while improving on his 14:18 TD/Int ratio.

Both quarterbacks will benefit from a large quantity of returning talent along the offensive line, but the Tar Heel’s hog mollies performed considerably better than ND’s squad last year. In addition to not allowing 58 sacks last season, this line actually returns more age and experience than ours. Kyle Jolly, Aaron Stahl, Calvin Darity, Garrett Reynolds, and Lowell Dyer all return with starting experience, and measuring in at 6'4.5", 302 lbs. on average, this unit that was a weakness last season may end up being a strength in 2008.

The offensive line play is one of the reasons that Notre Dame’s receivers were not as productive as North Carolina’s, but UNC still returns 218 of 220 receptions while ND’s graduation of John Carlson is a big loss. Junior Hakeem Nicks will look to build off of his 900+ yard, 5 TD season from a year ago.

Former WR Greg Little switched running back for the last two games, (where he rushed for 89 yards against Georgia Teach and 150 yards against Duke) and looks to be the frontrunner to start in the backfield this year.

UNC’s defense took some big hits at the end of last year, losing DT Kentwan Balmer to the NFL draft (1st round to the 49ers) and Durell Mapp (leading tackler in 2007) to graduation, but the Tarheels should have enough talent returning to be competitive (if not the best in the ACC Coastal). E.J Wilson will look to step up in Balmer’s absence (he was second on the team with 5 sacks last year), and Marvin Austin (former 5 star recruit) looks to build off of an impressive first year at DT, registering 4 sacks.

Aleric Mullins is the favorite to win the other DT starting job, and he also appears to be ready for a good 2008:

“Mullins is capable of getting to the quarterback, closing running lanes, and wreaking havoc on opposing offenses”

And that isn’t just a section football reference.

In the secondary, return 4 starters, including ACC defensive rookie of the year FS Deunta Williams. Pressure from the Tarheel’s front seven will allow these playmakers in the secondary more opportunities to make plays; the group of four finished with 6 interceptions last year.

In conclusion, UNC looks to actually be in a better situation heading into 2008. Notre Dame may have an advantage at running back and linebacker (hopefully quarterback, too), but the Tarheels appear to be as good or better at every other position. Because the 2008 final records for both of these teams depends so much on to what extent they fulfill their potential, this game is somewhat difficult to predict this early in the season. I would like to think that Kerry Neal and Brian Smith will be able to cause some carnage in the backfield and Notre Dame will ride it’s strong secondary to a win, but if UNC starts the season off strong and wins some tough games (@ Rutgers, home against VaTech) before this matchup, the Irish could be in for a struggle in Chapel Hill. For now, I’ll take the optimist route and give Notre Dame a 21-14 victory.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

You guys need more original writing. I can go anywhere and find opponent previews, but to boost your readership, I would suggest doing some funnier and original stuff. Maybe more personal ideas and college insight stuff - because I mean I get tired of reading exactly the same thing at every ND blogger's site. Just a suggestion.

Pops said...

Suggestions always welcome. Thanks anon